The post Polymarket odds slip to 48.5% for US–Iran ceasefire by Aug. 31 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Rongchai Wang Jul 19, 2026 02:11 After two US service members were killed in Jordan, the US military launched new airstrikes on Iran targeting Revolutionary Guard-linked infrastructure as strike exchanges continued and the Strait of Polymarket odds slip to 48.5% for US–Iran ceasefire by Aug. 31 Polymarket Ceasefire Odds Slip After Fresh US Airstrike Reports Reprice the Timeline Ladder Polymarket traders are now pricing a 48.5% chance of a US–Iran “effective ceasefire” by August 31, down 1.0 point on the latest update, with $1,024,939 matched. The move follows fresh reporting of new US airstrikes, and the ladder structure shows where the market is drawing its timeline cutoffs. Key Takeaways Prediction: “Ceasefire by August 31” leads at 48.5% (Yes 48.5 / No 51.5) on Polymarket’s timeline ladder. Basis: After news of renewed US strikes and ongoing exchanges, the market’s implied odds eased, with near-term ceasefire dates still priced as low-probability outcomes. Timing: The market resolves by 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC; recent tape is soft with a -4.0 pp change over 24h and -4.0 pp over 7d in the summary. The report says the US military carried out new airstrikes on Iran aimed at “swiftly punish[ing]” Iran’s Revolutionary Guard after an attack on a base in Jordan killed two US service members and left one missing. It describes damage to infrastructure and continued exchanges of strikes, with US Central Command citing targets tied to surveillance, logistics, weapons storage, and maritime capabilities. The account also says Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping since the war began with US and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28. Timeline Ladder Breakdown: $1.02M Matched as August 31 Holds 48.5% (vs July 18 at 0.6% and August 14 at 30.5%) This is a price-ladder (timeline) market, so each…