Allium based its figures on the 6% of wallets it tagged with a country, meaning the data should be seen as directional only. Source: Allium
Allium found that US users are more interested in foreign conflict-related markets than the rest of the platform’s users, with five of the US cohort’s top 12 markets by notional volume relating to the Iran war.
It also shows a lesser interest in election-related markets, which is a category of prediction markets allowed on Kalshi and Polymarket US.
“US money pours into foreign wars, lately Iran, and largely skips the elections the global crowd trades,” said Allium.
Cointelegraph contacted Polymarket for comment.
Allium’s figures align with another study published in June by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane, who estimated that 30% of trading volume on Polymarket comes from the US.
Crane estimated that people based in the US sent between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through Polymarket between May 2025 and April 2026, despite Polymarket blocking US-based IP addresses and VPNs, which could be used to skirt the block.
The researcher looked at the times of day the trades were made and the markets in which the trades were made to link certain trades to US users.
An excerpt of Polymarket’s FAQ page on its geographic restrictions. Source: Polymarket
Polymarket has reportedly been clamping down on users who use VPNs by blocking certain IP addresses tied to VPN services, The Information reported in May.
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Polymarket is completely blocked in more than 34 countries, the latest being Spain, which blocked local users from Polymarket and Kalshi as a “precautionary measure” as authorities open an investigation into whether the companies are operating without necessary licensing.
Another four countries, including Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and Poland, are in “close only,” meaning users in these countries can close existing positions but cannot open new trades.
There are also four restricted regions, Ontario in Canada, Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine, where Polymarket is blocked but is available elsewhere in the country.
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