CryptoQuant says Michael Saylor's Strategy should halt its bitcoin buying
CryptoQuant says the cash cushion behind Strategy's STRC has thinned from seven years of coverage to 14 months, and buying BTC at cycle tops has left the company with a $10.6 billion paper loss.
CryptoQuant warns that Strategy has overextended itself by aggressively buying bitcoin, urging the company to halt purchases and rebuild its depleted cash reserves.
The firm’s STRC preferred stock has dropped about 17.5% below its $100 par level as dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled to $1.2 billion while cash reserves have fallen 38% this year.
CryptoQuant says Strategy’s dividend coverage has shrunk from more than seven years to about 14 months and recommends restoring reserves to roughly $2.8 billion before resuming systematic bitcoin accumulation.
Strategy (MSTR) should stop buying bitcoin BTC$62,578.30, rebuild its cash reserve and become far more disciplined about when it buys, onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant said in a Wednesday report shared with CoinDesk.
A preferred stock is a class of equity that pays a set dividend, and STRC currently yields 11.5%. The slide came as bitcoin's correction and a shrinking cash reserve hit at the same time.
A concern is the cash behind those dividends. Strategy's U.S. dollar reserve has fallen 38% since the start of 2026, CryptoQuant said, while its annual dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled to $1.2 billion.
Dividend coverage, a measure of how long the reserve could keep funding payouts, has collapsed from more than seven years to about 14 months. A big reason was Strategy spending $1.5 billion in May to buy back its convertible notes, debt that can later convert into stock, draining the buffer that supports STRC.
The squeeze comes from both directions. As Strategy issued more STRC to fund bitcoin purchases, its annual dividend obligations ballooned from about $300 million at the start of 2026 to $1.2 billion now, a near fourfold jump in under six months.
CryptoQuant noted the reserve needed to reach about $2.8 billion, or 24 months of coverage, for STRC to recover. As such, Strategy reported a $1.1 billion reserve in mid-June.
So its bitcoin offers less of a backstop than its size suggests.
"The company sits on a $10.6 billion unrealized loss, with all Bitcoin purchased in 2024, 2025, and 2026 underwater," CryptoQuant said. "Any forced BTC sale at current prices would crystallize large losses and destroy shareholder value."
A forced sale is unlikely soon, though. Strategy is not required to sell bitcoin to defend STRC and can instead raise the dividend or sell new shares to signal it can keep paying, tools it is already using.
CryptoQuant's prescription is for Strategy to pause its bitcoin buying and rebuild the reserve first, then adopt a systematic approach to timing purchases rather than buying whenever it raises capital.
Strategy cannot simply switch the payments off to save cash. STRC's dividends are cumulative, meaning any skipped payment still has to be made up later, and CryptoQuant said the company is unlikely to suspend them anyway because doing so would damage its credibility with the preferred holders it needs.
The report is a sharper read than the one Benchmark-StoneX offered on Tuesday.
Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer rejected comparisons between STRC and Terra's collapsed stablecoin and argued the company's funding engine had become "less efficient" rather than broken.
What CryptoQuant is asking for would be a real break from how Strategy operates.
The company has bought bitcoin almost continuously, building a stash of about 847,000 coins, and Michael Saylor has made relentless accumulation the center of its identity. Pausing to rebuild cash would steady STRC, but it would also halt the buying that has defined the company.
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
Why it matters:
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.