US Senators Target Wildfire Bets in New CFTC Rule Fight

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Key Takeaways Nine Democratic senators asked the CFTC to prohibit wildfire event contracts by Aug. 14. Lawmakers cited $1.2M in trading tied to California’s 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires. Polymarket says the markets inform rather than exploit, and pulling them prevents nothing. Democratic Senators Want Wildfire Prediction Contracts Banned Over Arson Fears Nine U.S. senators asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to restrict prediction contracts tied to wildfires, arguing that traders could profit from fires lasting longer, spreading farther or destroying more property. The Aug. 3 letter requests answers from CFTC Chairman Michael Selig by Aug. 14. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) led the letter with Sens. Alex Padilla (D-CA), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Adam Schiff (D-CA), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), the ranking Democrat on the Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees the CFTC. All signatories represent states hit by fires this season, with roughly 1.7 million acres having burned in Oregon alone through late July. The senators are asking whether the commission is considering prohibiting designated contract markets from offering wildfire event contracts as part of the rulemaking now underway, “given they are against the public’s interest,” and whether it has any plans to curb wildfire bets on prediction markets in the United States. The lawmakers stated they wrote following public reporting on the markets and that Polymarket generated more than $1.2 million in trading tied to the Palisades and Eaton fires that struck the Los Angeles area in January 2025. One official market covering when the Palisades fire would be fully contained recorded $711,587 in volume, while other contracts covered acreage burned and whether the fire would reach Beverly Hills. “Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,”…

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