Bitcoin scores a rare win over S&P 500 with 2.6% rise versus 0.5% fall

Analysis
Bitcoin's rare outperformance of the S&P 500 on Monday marks a notable shift in its recent correlation dynamics, though the article frames it as an exception rather than a trend reversal. Glassnode's data showing BTC has outperformed equities on only about one-third of trading days over the past three months underscores how the AI-driven stock rally has diverted capital away from crypto markets. The bear market phase of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, with a peak above $126,000 in October and an expected bottom by October this year, adds a structural dimension to the current subdued demand. What bears watching is whether this single-day divergence signals the beginning of decoupling from equities or remains an isolated event amid ongoing AI stock momentum. Additionally, whether Bitcoin's cycle bottom materializes on the projected timeline and how capital flows respond to any shifts in the AI trade will be key indicators for the coming months.

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Bitcoin BTC$64,076.23 scored a rare achievement on Monday by outperforming the S&P 500. The largest cryptocurrency rose 2.6% to over $64,000, registering its best daily performance in over a month, according to CoinDesk data. Wall Street’s benchmark equity index, S&P 500, fell by 0.52%. Bitcoin, therefore, not only outpaced equities but moved in the totally opposite direction. This was once a norm. Bitcoin has spent most of its history being the higher-beta asset relative to stocks, meaning it typically moves more than stocks in both directions. “BTC outperformed the stock market today. This has become a less common occurrence lately. 1/2 In fact, BTC only outperformed the S&P 500 on around one third of trading days over the last three months,” blockchain analytics firm Glassnode said in a Telegram chat. BTC has mostly underperformed the S&P 500 in recent three months. (Glassnode) Underperforming two-thirds of the time means BTC has been acting less like a higher-beta asset relative to stocks and more like a laggard. Key reasons for that include the AI stock frenzy on Wall Street that has sucked out capital from other corners of the financial market, including cryptocurrencies. The bear market phase of bitcoin’s self-fulfilling four‑year cycle has also played a role in keeping demand for BTC subdued. BTC peaked above $126,000 in October last year and quickly entered the bear market, which is expected to bottom out by October this year. Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/08/18/bitcoin-scored-a-rare-win-over-s-and-p-500-on-monday

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