Same Catalyst That Hit Bitcoin on October 10 Is Back

Source: coinpedia2026/08/14 22:18

Analysis

MSCI's new "Non-Operating Companies" classification proposal represents a structural shift in how index providers treat asset-holding firms, and Strategy's failure of the preliminary test using May 2026 data signals that the earlier crypto-specific rule, which was withdrawn in January, has been replaced by a broader framework that also captures companies like Metaplanet and Yellow Cake. The key transmission path runs from index exclusion to forced selling by passive funds tracking MSCI benchmarks, which JPMorgan previously estimated could reach $8.8 billion under the earlier proposal, though the article notes this figure does not necessarily apply to the new rule. What makes this development significant is that it is no longer framed as a crypto-targeted measure, making it harder for Strategy to argue discrimination while still exposing the company to potential index removal. Watch for MSCI's final consultation outcome, whether Strategy's ongoing Bitcoin purchases alter its asset composition before the rule takes effect, and how passive fund flows respond if exclusion is confirmed.

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Same Catalyst That Hit Bitcoin on October 10 Is Back Golden Bitcoin coin on red bearish market chart.

MSCI’s new proposal could remove Strategy from major global indexes.
The October 10 crash wiped out more than $19 billion in leveraged positions.
JPMorgan previously estimated Strategy could face $8.8 billion in forced selling.

Largest corporate Bitcoin treasury Strategy is facing a new threat from MSCI that came at the time of Bitcoin’s October 10 crash. MSCI has proposed a new rule that could push Michael Saylor’s Strategy out of major global indexes, bringing back fears of billions of dollars in forced selling and another shock for Bitcoin.

What Happened on October 10?

The October 10, 2025, crash remains one of the worst days for the crypto market. More than $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 to 48 hours, while Bitcoin dropped from around $122,000 to $105,000.

On the same day, MSCI released its first consultation on companies holding large amounts of digital assets. The plan could have removed companies holding 50% or more of their assets in crypto from its major indexes.

That put Strategy directly in the spotlight because Michael Saylor’s company had built its business around holding Bitcoin. If Strategy was removed, funds tracking those indexes could be forced to sell its shares.

MSCI’s New Rule Could Hit Strategy Again

MSCI dropped the crypto specific proposal in January after Strategy argued that the rule unfairly targeted companies holding digital assets. That seemed to remove the immediate risk.

Now MSCI has returned with a different approach.

Instead of targeting crypto, MSCI has created a category called “Non-Operating Companies.” The new rule looks at companies that mainly hold assets instead of running a normal business.

The first test checks whether more than half of a company’s assets are used to run its business. If it fails, MSCI applies five more tests covering operating spending, cash use, changes in asset prices and dependence on outside funding.

A company could be removed if it fails four of those five tests.

Strategy Has Already Failed MSCI’s Test

This is where the new proposal becomes important for Strategy. MSCI has already tested the rule using May 2026 data, and Strategy failed the test.

Strategy is not alone. Metaplanet and Yellow Cake, a company that holds physical uranium, also failed the test. SharpLink is on a watchlist after failing the test once.

That makes the new rule harder to call a direct attack on Bitcoin. The same test can also apply to companies holding other assets.

Could This Trigger Another Bitcoin Selling Wave?

Meanwhile, strategy’s removal could create selling pressure on Bitcoin. JPMorgan previously estimated that the earlier MSCI plan could have created around $8.8 billion in forced selling of Strategy shares.

That figure does not mean $8.8 billion will be sold under the new proposal. However, heavy selling in Strategy could make it harder for the company to raise money and continue buying Bitcoin.

AS of now, Bitcoin has fallen almost 50% from its peak near $126,000, with the asset now trading around $63,000.

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