The signal here is not a price level but a behavioral one: two mid-term holder cohorts, the 18-to-24-month group near $88,350 and the 6-to-12-month group near $89,200, are converging on their average acquisition costs, and the analyst explicitly frames cost basis as a risk-identification tool rather than support or resistance. Because the 6-to-12-month cohort has reportedly sat underwater for roughly a year, some of its members likely bought near a prior top, which makes their response the transmission channel for any near-term volatility. Watch whether that cohort capitulates into the zone or instead adds to positions to lower its average cost, since the latter would absorb supply but also signal that overhead holders remain a persistent drag. Also worth tracking is whether the previously accumulated upward momentum stalls as these cohorts transact, and whether the 18-to-24-month group behaves differently from the shorter-duration group.
PANews, October 2 — CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin is testing two holder cohorts: the cost basis of holders from 18 months to 2 years is around $88,350, while that of 6-to-12-month holders is around $89,200. Bitcoin is entering this confluence zone, and the relevant investors may react emotionally.
Darkfost stressed that cost basis is not a support or resistance line but an average, used only to identify risk zones. He pointed out that the 6-to-12-month cohort has been at a loss for nearly a year overall, and some may have bought at the market top. This test will shake out the impatient, while others may keep buying to lower their cost basis and return to profit. As Bitcoin approaches these levels, such behavior could interrupt the upward momentum it had previously accumulated.
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