Ethereum Price Forecast as Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop on Cooling US Inflation

Analysis
The substantive shift here is macro rather than crypto-native: a cooler-than-expected August PCE print of 3.4% versus 3.7% expected pulled CME FedWatch odds of a 25bp October hike down to 34% from 67%, which typically loosens conditions for risk assets like ETH. Yet ETH only briefly cleared $2,700 before fading to about $2,679, showing that rate expectations alone are not translating into sustained demand. The offsetting signal is institutional flow: SoSoValue data shows $2.81 million of net outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs on September 29, ending a seven-day inflow streak and making ETH the only crypto ETF in the red that day. Watch whether ETF flows stabilize or extend outflows into early October, whether the October 28 FOMC outcome actually matches the repriced odds, and whether ETH can hold the $2,700 area on any renewed inflation or Fed commentary.

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Ethereum (ETH) price briefly surged above $2,700 on September 30 before dropping to trade at $2,679 at the time of writing. That initial gain occurred after the US PCE inflation came in lower than expected. The PCE inflation data has now reduced the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in prediction markets and the CME FedWatch Tool. Ad Ad Ethereum Price Fails to Gain Despite Bullish Inflation Data The crypto market has erased most of the gains made after the US PCE inflation for August 2026 came in at 3.4%, with this being lower than the expected 3.7% as earlier reported by CoinGape. While the PCE inflation print remains above the Fed’s target of 2%, the latest data shows that US inflation is cooling and could reduce the need for the Fed to hike interest rates further. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the odds that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points during the October 28 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting have dropped to 34%. CoinGape prediction markets also show that the Fed rate hike odds have fallen from 67% to 34%. Source: SoSoValue This drop is usually bullish for risk assets such as Ethereum. If markets begin to price in the possibility of the Federal Reserve not hiking interest rates at the October FOMC meeting, it could drive gains for Ethereum price. Ad Ad ETH ETF Outflows Return Data from SoSoValue shows that there were $2.81 million in outflows from Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on September 29. This marks the first time that Ethereum ETFs have posted outflows since September 18, with the products also ending their seven-day inflow streak. Source: SoSoValue Ethereum was the only crypto ETF that recorded outflows on September 29, suggesting that demand from institutional investors…

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