The post Polymarket prices 98.7% No on Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Alvin Lang Jul 19, 2026 18:19 A report says Jerusalem is preparing to join fighting with Iran as the US weighs next steps, raising fears of escalation around the Strait of Hormuz. Polymarket prices 98.7% No on Hormuz traffic normalizing by July 31 Polymarket Slashes “Hormuz Traffic Normal by July 31” Odds After Jerusalem Escalation Report Polymarket is now pricing a 98.7% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will NOT return to normal by July 31, with “Yes” down at 1.3% on $17.94M matched. The move follows a new report about Jerusalem potentially preparing to join fighting with Iran, and the contract’s rapid repricing shows how traders are mapping escalation risk into a hard July 31 settlement deadline. Key Takeaways Polymarket’s leading outcome is “No” at 98.7% (vs “Yes” at 1.3%) for traffic returning to normal by July 31. After a report on Jerusalem possibly preparing to join fighting with Iran, traders pushed the market toward a near-certain “No,” collapsing “Yes” to 1.3%. This binary market resolves on 2026-07-31 00:00:00 UTC; pricing implies little time for a reversal before the cutoff. A report says Jerusalem is preparing to join fighting with Iran while the US weighs next steps. The headline signals a potential escalation path that traders may connect to shipping and security conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. Market Reaction: 98.7% “No” vs 1.3% “Yes” on $17.94M Matched as Odds Collapse from ~42% This is a binary Polymarket contract: “Yes” only pays if traffic is judged to have returned to normal by the July 31 resolution date, while “No” pays otherwise—so the current 1.3% “Yes” price is the market’s implied probability of meeting that specific deadline, not a general long-run forecast. The pricing is extremely one-sided: “No” leads at 98.7% on…