XRP is approaching a critical support level in the ongoing price decline, with its next move likely to determine whether the broader bullish structure remains intact.
After months of uncertainty between bullish and bearish scenarios, XRP has moved closer to the bearish outcome. What once appeared to be the worst-case scenario in EGRAG’s projections has now become the market’s current reality.
At press time, XRP trades around $1.10, which brings it close to the $1.11-$1.07 support zone identified by veteran crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto.
The analyst considers this range XRP’s last major support area. Holding above it could preserve the broader market structure, while a breakdown could expose XRP to a deeper decline.
XRP October Decline Raises More Concerns
XRP’s weakness started in October, when the token closed the month down 16%. This marked its fourth-worst October performance since 2013. The only worse results came in 2013, when XRP dropped 44.8%, 2018, when it lost 22.9%, and 2024, when it declined 16.6%.
Previous market performances also suggest that November could bring more losses. Of the eight years in which XRP recorded a negative October, five were followed by another losing November.
This represents a failure rate of approximately 62%, and shows that XRP has often struggled to recover after a weak October.
EGRAG had initially expected XRP to follow a different path. His preferred scenario called for a rebound from $1.18, which would have limited the correction and kept the broader bullish structure intact.
However, XRP dropped below this level without building a strong support base. The decline pushed the token close to the $1.11-$1.07 range, which the analyst had previously identified as its final major support zone.
Why XRP Must Defend the $1.07 Support
The $1.11-$1.07 range now stands as the most important support area for XRP. According to EGRAG, even a further decline toward the psychological $1.00 level would not necessarily end XRP’s long-term bullish outlook.
XRP could reach $1.00 and still maintain its broader higher-low structure, which supports the bullish case on the long-term chart.
However, the analyst says a daily candle close below $1.07 is a much more serious development. Such a move would act as a major warning that XRP could be losing its broader market structure, not just experiencing another stage of its ongoing correction.
As a result, a confirmed break below this level could change the outlook for XRP considerably. In this case, traders would have to consider the possibility of a deeper structural breakdown.
XRP Facing Pressure at Key Support
XRP’s chart also shows signs of continued weakness. Since its late-September upward push, the token has formed lower rally peaks. This suggests that buyers have attempted several recoveries, but sellers have continued to take control and push the price lower.
XRP also remains below key moving averages, including the 100 EMA on the daily chart. Institutional demand has also slowed. XRP ETF net inflows reached only approximately $10 million by mid-October, compared with $121 million throughout September.
November’s historical performance is also concerning. Seven of XRP’s 13 completed Novembers between 2013 and 2025 ended with losses. The cryptocurrency also recorded a median monthly return of -5.08% during those months.
XRP Recovery Targets Stretch From $1.25 to $1.80
Despite the current market conditions, EGRAG has not changed his long-term position on XRP. The analyst said he continues to accumulate spot XRP at current prices and confirms that the cryptocurrency could experience further declines.
If XRP holds the current support zone and begins recovering, the analyst identifies several price levels that could guide the next move. The first important target stands at $1.25, followed by $1.43. A break above $1.43 could then allow XRP to move toward $1.63.
The final major target sits at $1.80. Reaching this level would confirm that XRP has maintained its broader market structure despite the recent decline. For now, however, XRP must first defend the $1.11–$1.07 support zone.