Galaxy Research Cuts CLARITY Act 2026 Odds to 10% as SEC, CFTC Step In

Source: bitcoinethereumnews2026/08/15 21:25

Analysis

Galaxy Research's decision to slash CLARITY Act passage odds to 10% signals a meaningful shift in how the market views near-term U.S. crypto legislation. The Senate Banking Committee's May markup had generated bipartisan optimism, but unresolved ethics rules, community bank lobbying, and disputes over developer protections under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act have eroded that momentum. As legislative prospects fade, the SEC's Reg Crypto and Innovation Exemption initiatives, alongside the CFTC's push to assert jurisdiction over prediction markets, represent a regulatory pivot toward administrative rulemaking rather than congressional action. This creates a fragmented oversight landscape where agencies may act independently, potentially leading to overlapping or conflicting rules. Key developments to watch include whether the Senate resumes negotiations after the August recess, how the SEC's proposed rules evolve through public comment, and how courts resolve the state and federal lawsuits over prediction market jurisdiction that could shape CFTC authority.

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TLDR: Galaxy Research lowers CLARITY Act 2026 passage odds to just 10% amid Senate gridlock. Unresolved ethics rules and bank lobbying stalled bipartisan momentum from May’s committee markup. SEC advances Reg Crypto and the Innovation Exemption as legislative prospects continue to fade. CFTC moves to assert jurisdiction over prediction markets amid overlapping state and federal lawsuits. Galaxy Research now places the odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 at just 10 percent. The firm points to stalled Senate negotiations and unresolved ethics disputes as key drivers. Regulators at the SEC and CFTC are moving to fill the resulting gaps through administrative action instead. Senate Gridlock Stalls CLARITY Act Momentum Galaxy Research notes that the CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May with bipartisan backing. That markup fueled expectations of a floor vote before the August recess began on August 7. Those expectations have since collapsed under mounting political pressure. The firm identifies unresolved ethics controls as a central obstacle to progress. Lawmakers could not agree on rules governing officials’ crypto involvement despite sustained bipartisan effort. Community bank lobbying also weakened Republican support as the summer wore on. Galaxy Research points to a separate fight over developer protections as another complicating factor. Illicit finance hawks pushed to narrow protections under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. Some law enforcement groups later softened that stance, easing fears the issue would sink the bill entirely. Galaxy Research: Odds of CLARITY Act Passage This Year Decline Galaxy Research stated that the likelihood of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, passing in 2026 is declining. Uncertainty surrounding the legislation has prompted the SEC and CFTC to accelerate… pic.twitter.com/J7psdruD6l — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 15, 2026 Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy, wrote that “CLARITY is now much more…

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